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Famously Bad Predictions Options
jim
Posted: Wednesday, March 26, 2008 9:09:04 PM

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"I think there's a world market for maybe five computers."
- Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM (1943)
Neo
Posted: Thursday, March 27, 2008 1:01:40 PM
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"I confess that in 1901 I said to my brother Orville that man would not fly for fifty years." - Wilbur Wright.

1903 - He helped prove himself wrong.
1909 - Louis Bleriot made the first flight across the English Channel.
1915 - The first all-metel aeroplane is built in Germany.
1919 - Alcock & Brown complete the first non-stop Atlantic flight.

This was exponential progress in action. What seemed fantastic at one time soon becomes commonplace a few short years later. And this was a Century ago - technological progress has speeded up significently since then, and is only getting faster.

There is no spoon.
jim
Posted: Friday, March 28, 2008 11:08:06 AM

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more on flight...

"The aeroplane will never fly."
- Lord Haldane, Minister of War, Britain, 1907 (statement made four years after Kitty Hawk)
Neo
Posted: Friday, March 28, 2008 11:38:39 AM
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jim wrote:
more on flight...

"The aeroplane will never fly."
- Lord Haldane, Minister of War, Britain, 1907 (statement made four years after Kitty Hawk)


Wouldn'd that be a famously bad postdiction?Drool

There is no spoon.
jim
Posted: Monday, April 14, 2008 4:26:33 PM

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"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?"
- H. M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927
jdlaw
Posted: Saturday, April 19, 2008 10:40:54 PM

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"The Singularity is Near" Raymond Kurzweil (2005)

...
...

Sorry, I was just waiting for the lightning to strike me dead.
stendec
Posted: Tuesday, April 22, 2008 3:34:50 PM

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jdlaw wrote:
"The Singularity is Near" Raymond Kurzweil (2005)

...
...

Sorry, I was just waiting for the lightning to strike me dead.


Hehe good one!

Got me thinking though....

For all we know, the singularity may have been and gone already ....

Imagine one super-fast AI that is created, maybe by DARPA for the US military, and it actually becomes sentient. It then accelerates exponentially (or "hyper-nentially" if its a quantum computer) and leaves this physical realm completely, with only the shell of its original processing system in place and working as the inventors hoped.

Just a thought!
MO
Posted: Wednesday, April 23, 2008 6:46:07 AM
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and every once in a while, maybe it decides to take up residence in somebody's cell phone or auto ignition system, all gremlin-like? Angel
jdlaw
Posted: Thursday, April 24, 2008 3:31:28 AM

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stendec wrote:
Hehe good one!

Got me thinking though....

For all we know, the singularity may have been and gone already ....

Imagine one super-fast AI that is created, maybe by DARPA for the US military, and it actually becomes sentient. It then accelerates exponentially (or "hyper-nentially" if its a quantum computer) and leaves this physical realm completely, with only the shell of its original processing system in place and working as the inventors hoped.

Just a thought!


Exactly! Or maybe it happened 4 Billion years ago (in programmed reality time that is) and this universe is the result of a singularity.

Hmmmn?
Neo
Posted: Sunday, April 27, 2008 6:04:30 PM
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"I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible." - Lord Kelvin.

There is no spoon.
stendec
Posted: Tuesday, May 27, 2008 3:36:31 PM

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MO wrote:
and every once in a while, maybe it decides to take up residence in somebody's cell phone or auto ignition system, all gremlin-like? Angel

Haha or in the minds of politicians ??
sambuca
Posted: Tuesday, September 09, 2008 9:52:22 AM
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"who the hell wants sliced bread"---the count of three to the baron of brane---berlin 1895
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