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I sort of got into this whole scientific futurism arena because of Drexler, and then came across Kurzweil, so I'm happy to kick of the first Nanotech post here. If you talk to most people about the technological revolutions that are taking place, many seem to buy the concept (i.e. that these things are possible, feasible) but the timelines, well that's another thing. The subject title above is a prime example. A replicator that can create a (syntho-) steak from, say, a piece of wood? In something resembling a microwave? In less than 20 years?? Eh?? Maybe (even) people viewing this think that it's nutty. Well, if it gets people talking about these topics in a constructive way then that's to the good. Hey, people have said that Kurzweil was off the beam even though his track record speaks for itself. I think that we will be at this stage circa 2025. Anyway, here's an interesting acticle to check out. http://crnano.typepad.com/crnblog/2007/01/replicators_in_.html: So, watcha think? 2025? 2050? 2075? Which year is closest in your view, if any?
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Did you check out my article " Nanotech and the Physical Manifestation of a Reality?" Although some argue that Moore's Law isn't a good tool for certain projections, Kurzweil says it will actually be faster, and others argue that it will be slower. Both camps make decent arguments, so i'll stick with the middle road until i know more. Roughly, and with a generous heap of speculations, i'm thinking: 2025 - flying nanobots 2030 - networked nanobot swarms 2050 - molecular assemblers 2050 - utility fog Anybody else care to speculate?
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jim wrote:
Roughly, and with a generous heap of speculations, i'm thinking:
2025 - flying nanobots
2030 - networked nanobot swarms
2050 - molecular assemblers
2050 - utility fog
Anybody else care to speculate?
Not sure at all about timescales on this one, Jim. But I've been thinking about AI tonight, and replied to some postings on the subject, and can't help wondering what if a utility fog had its own fully-conscious AI; perhaps if an assembler copied a human brain, or emulated it, it may exhibit "holographic" memory of the intelligence.
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Michio Kaku on personal fabricators: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtKKQDZUHpE
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